Expected Value — Fold, Call, or Raise?

Expected Value (EV) is the average amount of money you win or lose from a decision over the long run. Every time you fold, call, or raise, that action has an EV — even if you cannot see it in the moment.

The basic EV formula for a call

EV of Call = (Equity x Total Pot) - Cost of Call

"Total Pot" means all the money that will be in the middle after you call (the existing pot + opponent's bet + your call). "Equity" is your probability of winning.

If EV is positive (+EV), the call makes money over time. If EV is negative (-EV), the call loses money over time.

Example: The pot is $100 your opponent bets $50 and you have 35% equity.

Total Pot = $100 + $50 + $50 = $200 EV = (0.35 x $200) - $50 EV = $70 - $50 EV = +$20

This means every time you make this call, you profit $20 on average. Even though you lose 65% of the time, the amount you win when you hit more than makes up for it.

This is the core of poker math: making decisions that are +EV, even when some of those decisions result in losses on individual hands.

This is the most counterintuitive idea in poker: you can have the worst hand and still make a profitable call.

Imagine you are fairly sure your opponent has top pair. You have a flush draw — you will lose about 65% of the time. But if the pot is large enough relative to the bet, calling is +EV.

The key insight is that poker is not about winning every hand. It is about making decisions where the math is in your favour. Over hundreds of hands, +EV decisions accumulate into profit, even though any single hand might lose.

This is why good players sometimes "lose" a hand and shrug it off. They know the call was correct — the outcome just did not go their way this time. Bad players chase results: they remember the times they called and lost, and start folding +EV spots.

Think of it like this: if someone offered you a coin flip where you win $300 on heads and lose $100 on tails, you should take that bet every single time. You will lose half the flips, but you will be rich in the long run. Poker works the same way — just with messier math.

You have ~15 outs (9 flush + 6 straight). Equity: 15 x 2 = 30%. Total pot after call = $120 + $60 + $60 = $240. EV = (0.30 x $240) - $60 = $72 - $60 = +$12. This is a +EV call.