Outs to Percentages
Convert your outs into win probability using the Rule of 2 and 4.
The Rule of 2 and 4
Once you know your outs, convert them to a win probability with a simple mental shortcut:
- ◆On the flop (2 cards to come) — multiply your outs by 4
- ◆On the turn (1 card to come) — multiply your outs by 2
Example with a flush draw (9 outs)
- ◆Flop equity: 9 × 4 = 36% chance to hit by the river
- ◆Turn equity: 9 × 2 = 18% chance to hit on the river
This is an approximation — the exact math is slightly different — but it is accurate enough to make quick decisions at the table. For very high out counts (15+) the rule slightly overstates the probability, but it remains a useful guide.
Example: Flush Draw on the Flop
You hold A♦ J♦. The flop is 8♦ 3♦ K♣. You have a flush draw with 9 outs. The turn is 7♠ — you still need a diamond on the river.
The turn is a blank. You still have 9 outs to the flush on the river.
Quick Reference
Common out counts converted using the Rule of 2 and 4
Outs | Flop (×4) | Turn (×2) -----|-----------|---------- 4 | 16% | 8% 6 | 24% | 12% 8 | 32% | 16% 9 | 36% | 18% 15 | 60% | 30%
Use these numbers to decide whether to call a bet. If your equity (win probability) is higher than the pot odds you are being offered, calling is profitable in the long run.